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 Treasury unemployment forecast points to years of slow jobs growth   
The Treasury’s decision to publish a forecast of claimant unemployment in the Pre-Budget Report is a welcome move, according to John Philpott, Chief Economic Adviser at the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD).

But the forecast offers a very sober assessment of the medium-term outlook for the UK jobs market.

"The Treasury has made a bold decision in breaking with Whitehall convention to publish a forecast of claimant unemployment for the period to the end of 2012," he said.

"Ministers are doubtless pleased that unemployment has risen by less than expected during the recession, providing an unanticipated fillip to the beleaguered public finances. But while it now looks as though claimant unemployment will peak at a lower level (around 1.75 million) in 2010 than originally feared, the Treasury forecast offers no sign of a swift return to low unemployment.

"The Treasury reckons there will still be 1.5 million people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance at the end of 2012, which can be translated into around 2.3 million on the wider survey based measure of unemployment. This is 700,000 more than the pre-recession level of unemployment even after what the Treasury forecasts will be three years of healthy economic recovery.

"The Treasury has provided a very sober forecast of the medium term outlook for the UK labour market. The forecast implies that unemployment will probably remain above 2 million for the first half of the next decade even on what may prove to be an optimistic forecast for economic growth. Unemployment at this level will also act as a tough constraint on pay rises, which are unlikely to outstrip price inflation for some considerable time."
 

Mandatory Retirement Age
The Government has published the Employment Equality (Repeal of Retirement Age Provisions) Regulations on the 17 February 2011. These Regulations will take effect on 6 April 2011. The Regulations abolish the default retirement age of 65 and gives guidance as to the provision of employee benefits post 65. The abolition of the default retirement age will have a major impact on employment policies and practices in the UK. It is important for employers to consider what impact these Regulations will have on employment policies and procedures.
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